For months, the polls had told Donald Trump a story he did not want to hear. On Tuesday night, American voters appeared to confirm it, and then to go further. CNN projected that Democrats had won the House of Representatives, an outcome long expected. The surprise came in the Senate, where, by midnight in Brasília, early counts suggested the opposition was on course for a majority, a result that stunned even the party's most hopeful strategists.
The most striking evidence came from places where Democrats are supposed to lose. In Texas, James Talarico was reported to have beaten Ken Paxton, a Republican closely aligned with the president, in one of the night's biggest upsets. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor, was competing for a seat his party has not held for 94 years. South Carolina, which has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, saw a far tighter race than forecasters had predicted.
The Cook Political Report had rated it as favouring Republicans, though not as safe. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat two years ago, returned by defeating Jon Husted, the appointee who filled the vacancy left by Vice-President JD Vance. More than $400m was spent on that contest, among the costliest in the country. How much should be read into this?