On the same day that oil prices fell by more than seven percent on hopes of peace, five explosions in quick succession reportedly shook Qeshm Island, the largest in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state news agency IRNA said residents had seen two aircraft overhead. The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed American officials, attributed the attack to the United States and called it the latest in a series of limited strikes carried out in secret over recent weeks. The timing is awkward for Washington.

President Donald Trump, speaking on the eve of the American midterm elections, said that a deal with Tehran could happen, and talks are described as intensive. Yet the war, now eight months old, began in late February, and the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor for much of the world's oil, has been largely blocked since then. The Pentagon referred questions to US Central Command, which had not responded to an AFP request for comment by late Monday. According to the Journal, some officials portray the strikes as defensive, intended to deny Iran the freedom to attack commercial shipping.

The attacks have reportedly not been announced, so as to avoid suggesting that major combat operations are about to resume. Critics might argue that this is a distinction without a difference: a strike is a strike, and Tehran may read it as pressure at the negotiating table rather than as restraint. For importers in Asia and Europe, who have borne the cost of the blockade, the market's relief is understandable but may prove fragile. Prices have moved on words, while the reported actions point in another direction.