A UN-backed report says melting ice makes temporary overshoot of climate targets far riskier than assumed, and that warming must fall below 1C.
Switzerland has lost a fifth of its glacier ice in just five years. Think about that for a moment. Mountains that seemed permanent are shrinking within a single school career. Now a new report asks an uncomfortable question.
What if we simply let the planet overheat for a while, then cool it down later? It sounds tidy, like borrowing money and paying it back. But 80 scientists, convened by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative and the UN Environment Programme, say the ice does not work that way. The world has warmed by about 1.
3C since pre-industrial times. Because emissions keep rising and nature is poorly protected, some overshoot of the 1.5C Paris target is now considered unavoidable. Under current policies, however, peak temperatures could reach roughly 3C.
That would thaw nearly all near-surface permafrost and make "severe and possibly abrupt" disruption to ocean circulation likely. Sea ice, it turns out, also recovers more slowly than researchers once believed.