It is a strange position for the politician who, by most independent accounts, did more than anyone to unite Venezuela's opposition: to learn that the negotiations over the country's future are taking place without her. María Corina Machado, the opposition leader who has spent long stretches in hiding, says she was excluded from the talks now under way in Caracas between the chavista government and opposition representatives. She resents it, and says so. Yet her message is less combative than the grievance might suggest.

Machado insists she will not stand in the way of any agreement, provided it genuinely opens a path to democracy. The distinction matters. A leader who sabotaged talks would hand the government a convenient story about intransigent extremists; a leader who withheld her blessing without blocking them keeps her moral authority intact while leaving room for others to take the risks of compromise. The background explains her caution.

After the July 2024 presidential election, the opposition published tally sheets collected by its volunteers, which it said showed Edmundo González winning with roughly 67% of the vote. The electoral authority, loyal to President Nicolás Maduro, declared Maduro the winner without releasing detailed results. Many governments in Latin America, Europe and beyond refused to recognise that outcome, and the dispute has never been resolved. Negotiators face a familiar dilemma, seen from South Africa in the 1990s to Colombia's peace process.