On the evening of September 10th, 2026, Donald Trump stepped out of the Republican convention in Dallas and told Fox News something that surprised almost nobody who had watched his career: he had no regrets. The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, he insisted, was exactly what he would choose again. The conviction was characteristic; the consequences, however, are proving considerably harder to contain. The war has sent the cost of living upward across much of the world, driven largely by disruptions to energy supplies flowing through the Persian Gulf.

That pressure is now expected to weigh on Republican candidates in November's midterm elections — a political irony that Trump's critics have been quick to note. Administrations that launch wars often discover that economic pain travels faster than military victory. The regional picture has grown more complicated by the day. Saudi authorities issued warnings about potential danger in areas near the Yemeni border after Iran-backed Houthi forces accused Riyadh of launching dozens of airstrikes on Yemen, suggesting that the conflict is pulling neighbouring states deeper into its orbit.

Further north, the Israeli military announced it had destroyed Hezbollah tunnels in southern Lebanon, an action that was followed almost immediately by a 4.1-magnitude earthquake recorded by the US Geological Survey — a coincidence that Lebanon's already traumatised population could have done without. Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed their navy had targeted an American unmanned surface vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a significant share of the world's oil passes.