An extraordinary El Niño is silencing the Atlantic hurricane season at precisely the moment it should be roaring loudest.
Something is missing over the Atlantic Ocean this September, and its absence is making history. By this week — statistically the most dangerous point of the hurricane season — not a single hurricane has formed in the Atlantic basin. In an average year, meteorologists would expect to have already tracked three hurricanes and eight named storms. This year, the ocean has produced only five modest tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard.
That is it. The sky, for now, is quiet. That quiet is about to set a record. In the satellite era, which began in the 1960s and gave scientists their first reliable global view of storm systems, the latest date on which an Atlantic hurricane season had produced zero hurricanes was 11 September — a record shared by 2002 and 2013.
That date has now been passed. Unless a hurricane forms almost immediately, this season will hold the unwanted crown for the longest hurricane-free stretch in modern recorded history. The reason is a powerful El Niño, the climate pattern driven by unusually warm water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When El Niño strengthens, it increases wind shear over the Atlantic — essentially a change in wind speed and direction at different altitudes that tears developing storm systems apart before they can organise into hurricanes.