theSIGNAL WORLD
16 July 2026
"In strategy, the longest patience is often the most powerful weapon."
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World

Iran's waiting game outfoxes Washington again

Tehran's strategy of exhausting American patience has succeeded a second time, leaving the United States with few credible options for pressure.

In the summer of 2019, a United States surveillance drone was shot down over the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump authorised retaliatory strikes, then pulled back with ten minutes to spare, citing the projected death toll. That moment of hesitation was not lost on Tehran. It confirmed, for the Islamic Republic's strategists, a working theory: that the United States could be outlasted.

Six years on, that theory has been vindicated a second time, as Washington finds itself once again at the end of a diplomatic cycle with little to show for its pressure. The pattern is now familiar enough to have a shape. Iran absorbs sanctions, endures periods of maximum pressure, and waits for American political conditions to shift — whether through an election, a distracted Congress, or a president unwilling to pay the domestic cost of military escalation. The Islamic Republic does not need to win any single confrontation.

It needs only to avoid losing decisively, and time, it has calculated, is on its side. This second phase, however, carries risks that the first did not. Iran's nuclear programme is considerably more advanced than it was during the original JCPOA negotiations, and the regional landscape — from Gaza to the Red Sea — has been transformed by more than a year of grinding conflict. What makes Washington's position particularly uncomfortable is the narrowness of the options that remain.

Photo: Smithsonian / Unsplash
Negotiators at a Vienna-style nuclear talks session face an increasingly narrow diplomatic window.
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6 years
Iran's patient cycle outwaiting US pressure
Discuss
  • Why might a strategy of 'waiting out' an opponent be effective in international diplomacy?
  • What does the phrase 'maximum pressure' mean in foreign policy, and has it worked against Iran?
World

More Countries Now Favour China Over US

For the first time since Pew Research Centre began tracking global sentiment in 2002, more people in 25 of 36 surveyed countries hold favourable views of China than of the United States — a historic shift that researchers attribute partly to the early months of Donald Trump's second term. Previous dips in US favourability, recorded in 2008 and 2017, never produced such a gap. Spain, Italy, Indonesia and Canada recorded the sharpest swings toward China, while Poland, Japan and South Korea remained among the few nations still preferring Washington. Middle-income countries drove much of China's gains, though Singapore — the wealthiest economy surveyed — bucked that pattern. The Asia-Pacific offered the survey's sharpest contrasts: roughly 90% of Pakistanis view China favourably, against just 11% of Japanese.…
  • Does this shift reflect a rejection of the US or an embrace of China?
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The Islamic Republic does not need to win any single confrontation — it needs only to avoid losing decisively.
Strategic Affairs Analyst, The Signal
World

Hong Kong's Independent Bookstores Fight to Survive

A decade ago, browsing a politically sensitive title in a Mong Kok bookshop carried little risk. Today, the shelves tell a different story. Since Beijing imposed its national security law in 2020, dozens of independent bookstores have closed or quietly removed titles that touch on democracy, dissent, or modern Chinese history. Owners describe a climate of self-censorship in which the boundary between caution and compliance is increasingly difficult to locate. The consequences extend beyond commerce.…
  • Should governments ever have the power to restrict which books are sold?
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theSIGNAL IN THE LAB
IVOCABULARY
outlastedvindicated
marginalescalationself-censorship
realignmentdissent
IIGRAMMAR FOCUS
Inversion with negative adverbials
When a negative adverbial such as 'Not only', 'Hardly', 'Never', or 'Seldom' is placed at the start of a sentence for emphasis, the subject and auxiliary verb are inverted, as in 'Not only did Iran absorb sanctions, but it also waited for conditions to shift.'
did · had · has · were · would · never · only
  1. Not did Trump authorise retaliatory strikes, but he also pulled back with ten minutes to spare.
  2. Hardly the drone been shot down when Tehran began reassessing Washington's resolve.
  3. Never before so many countries simultaneously favoured China over the United States in Pew's global survey.
  4. Not only secondary sanctions been applied broadly, but their marginal effect was also diminishing.
  5. Seldom independent bookshops in Hong Kong face such pressure to remove titles from their shelves.
  6. Not only Iran avoid losing decisively, but it also outlasted two full cycles of American pressure.
IIIDEPENDENT PREPOSITIONS
Complete each phrase with the correct preposition. All from today's articles.
  1. to show ___ its pressure
  2. attributed ___ the early months of Trump's second term
  3. confidence ___ Xi Jinping
  4. titles that touch ___ democracy and dissent
  5. the boundary ___ caution and compliance
IVCRITICAL THINKING
The Pew survey suggests that global opinion of the US has shifted more dramatically under Trump's second term than under his first — yet the article leaves open whether this is a lasting realignment or a temporary reaction. What evidence from all three articles might help you decide which explanation is more convincing, and what additional information would you need?
VCREATIVE · HEADLINES
Write a headline for the top story in each of the following styles. One line each, no explanation:
  • TABLOID NEWSPAPER
  • LUXURY MAGAZINE
  • ACTIVIST BLOG
VIWRITING
A critic argues that self-censorship is more dangerous than state censorship because it is invisible and leaves no one to hold accountable. Using evidence from the Hong Kong article and your own reasoning, write a short response agreeing or disagreeing with this view.
VIIDEGREES OF EXTREMITY
Complete each ladder from mild to strong.
  • concerned→→
  • dislike→→
  • cautious→→
  • unpopular→→
  • limit→→
  • tension→→
VIIISPEAKING
  1. Which country's swing toward China surprised you most, and why?
  2. Can self-censorship ever become indistinguishable from genuine belief?
  3. When does diplomatic trust, once exhausted, ever truly recover?
  4. Are bookshops politically significant, or merely symbolic of lost freedoms?