In 2025, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) lost more than 2,000 jobs in a single year. In the decade before, its workforce had typically risen or fallen by about 500 positions annually. Since January 2025, the agency widely regarded as a global crown jewel of climate science has shed roughly 20% of its staff, according to figures from the Office of Personnel Management. The timing is uncomfortable.

A "super El Niño", marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures along the equator, is already climbing off the charts and is expected to strengthen through the northern hemisphere's autumn and winter. Its effects are rarely confined to one region: it can reshape rainfall in Peru, drought in southern Africa and heat in South-East Asia. In the United States, forecasters expect it to supercharge storms in the west, raise sea levels in California by up to a foot, and create conditions for landslides, debris flows and flash floods. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service, which sits inside NOAA, has struggled to keep its own house in order.

Hundreds of meteorological and technical posts remain vacant across its 122 forecast offices, and some weather stations have delayed data collection or reduced their operating hours. Contracts and grants have been cancelled, and databases and research laboratories shut down. Former officials describe a chaotic workplace in which morale has fallen and burnout has risen. The danger, they argue, is that such erosion is invisible until it is tested.