The crossover was small on paper: 23% against 22%. Yet when China's National Bureau of Statistics published its latest figures, economists read them as a turning point. For every 100 people of working age, Chinese families now support 23 elderly dependants but only 22 children. It is the first time the old have outnumbered the young in this ratio.

The raw counts tell the same story. More than 223 million people in China are aged 65 or over, nearly 16% of the population, while roughly 213 million are aged 14 or under. No official commentary accompanied the release, but the state-controlled Global Times described the trend as a long-term historical process, shaped by large past birth cohorts and rising life expectancy, rather than a passing shock. The newspaper also pointed to a "silver economy" of products and services for older consumers.

Outside analysts are more cautious. Professor Stuart Gietel-Basten of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology argues that public money will gradually shift from families and schools towards pensions and healthcare. Mu Zheng, a sociologist at the National University of Singapore, warns that the change could limit both growth and household spending power, which complicates Beijing's ambitions. The roots lie partly in rapid urbanisation and partly in the one-child policy, which ran from 1980 to the end of 2015.