When a Expert Doubted Himself

From the reading: The Expert Who Doubted Himself

"I have always believed," Daniel Kahneman once told an interviewer at Princeton, "that the confidence people have in their judgements tells you almost nothing about how accurate those judgements actually are." Kahneman, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002 despite being a psychologist, spent five decades documenting the gap between human confidence and human accuracy. His core finding was disarmingly simple: the more fluent and coherent a story feels, the more certain we feel — and the more dangerous that certainty becomes. He called this cognitive ease, the feeling that everything fits, that the picture is clear, that we could not possibly be wrong.