On Thursday, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi picked up the phone to Donald Trump with a message that was as much about Iraq's survival as about diplomacy: Baghdad will not allow its territory to be used to attack its neighbours. According to his office, the two leaders discussed the "evolving situation in the region" and "prospects for the next phase", a phrase that hints at how uncertain that next phase has become. The call came as diplomats scramble to prevent a fresh round of American attacks on Iran. Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein made no attempt to disguise the danger.

The prospect of new strikes, he told Dijlah TV, is "not a secret", and a new war would be a "disaster" for Iraq. "We are not prepared for war," he said, adding that neither Iraqi society nor its armed forces were ready for one. His warning was aimed as much at Iraqis as at foreigners. Since Mr Trump launched the war in February, Iraq has been hit by the United States, by Iran and by armed groups operating on its own soil.

Several powerful pro-Iran factions have carried out attacks in support of Tehran across the region, which gives them the means to drag Iraq in again if Iran retaliates. Mr al-Zaidi, in office since May, has made disarming all such groups a priority, though that task is easier announced than achieved. The difficulty is structural. Iraq depends on good relations with both Washington and Tehran, and each regards neutrality with suspicion.