Forty days before nominations close, and the man who was supposed to be cornered is instead circling the globe, shaking hands and collecting votes. Gianni Infantino's plan to sell World Cup commercial rights to a private equity firm, known as the Fifa Forward Enterprise, detonated a crisis in August that was meant to end his reign. Instead, with the deadline for the 18 November nominations closing in, no credible rival has emerged, and insiders now expect another coronation when Fifa's Congress meets in Rabat on 18 March. The turnaround has been remarkable to watch.

UEFA believed the scandal had finally handed it a chance to remove Infantino, whose grip on the presidency had looked unshakeable since 2016. Victor Montagliani, the Concacaf president once tipped as the man most likely to challenge him, has instead chosen to stay in his current role. Without a challenger, Europe's federation has been left with accusations but no ballot box to use them in. While his critics regrouped, Infantino kept moving: to Colombia for a presidential inauguration, to the Dominican Republic for a youth tournament his federation funded, to Jakarta for the Asean Cup final, and this week to Cape Verde for an African football conference.

There, he reminded delegates of exactly why his support holds firm outside Europe. "We have invested $1bn in 10 years in Africa," he told them, a line calculated to resonate far beyond that room. What emerges is a federation split roughly down the middle: UEFA, Concacaf and much of Asia uneasy, while Africa, South America and Oceania remain firmly onside. That alignment may be enough to deliver Infantino a fourth term even without full global consensus behind him.