Three hundred thousand tonnes sounds substantial until it is set against America's thirst for fuel. That is the amount of Russian diesel President Donald Trump says Vladimir Putin has agreed to release immediately to global markets, with another 500,000 tonnes promised for November and a million more after that. On paper, it looks like a diplomatic breakthrough. In practice, say analysts in London and New York, it barely registers.

Tim Armitage, an investment strategist at Quilter Cheviot, did the arithmetic: the first shipment amounts to roughly 2.25 million barrels, compared with daily US consumption of about 3.8 million barrels. In other words, the entire opening tranche covers less than one day's demand.

"It does appear to be a slightly desperate move by President Trump to try to lower inflation ahead of the midterms," Armitage said. The deal coincides with a US Treasury decision to suspend sanctions on Russian diesel exports until 7 April, though other frozen Russian assets, including funds held in American banks, remain untouched. In Kyiv, the reaction was blunt. President Volodymyr Zelensky called the arrangement "a gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin" and warned that Moscow would repay it "with further terror.

" Ukraine has spent months striking Russian refineries, which prompted Moscow's own export ban on diesel earlier this year — a ban Putin now says he is willing to loosen for both American and global buyers, though without specifying volumes. Zelensky is pressing Washington for a tougher line instead: "A strong one, not a weak one," as he put it. What remains unclear is what the United States is offering Russia in return, a question the BBC has put to the White House without reply so far.