Riyadh, last November. Aryna Sabalenka drops into her courtside chair after a straight-sets loss, seething and searching for words. She reaches for a Russian idiom: "Once a year, even a stick shoots." It is meant as a compliment — just barely.

What Sabalenka does not yet know is that the stick is already lining up its next shot. That next shot lands at the Australian Open. Then at the US Open. Elena Rybakina beats Sabalenka in both finals, all of them played on hard courts, all of them confirming that what happened in Riyadh was no lucky misfire.

In the space of twelve months the 27-year-old Kazakhstani has climbed from one-time grand slam champion — still questioned, still doubted — to three-time major winner and world No 1. She now sits one French Open title away from the career grand slam, level in that particular race with Iga Swiatek and Jannik Sinner. Clay was once pointed to as her soft underbelly: a big serve and limited movement, the argument went, would punish her on the red dirt. The numbers disagree.

Rybakina has collected five titles on clay, including the Rome WTA 1,000 crown in 2023, against eight on hard courts — a striking ratio given how heavily the tour calendar is weighted toward hard surfaces.