Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has not formally announced his candidacy. But in meetings across Brasília, in union halls in São Paulo, and in conversations with allies from Buenos Aires to Lisbon, the message being sent is unmistakable: the 79-year-old president intends to seek a fourth term in 2026. The calculation is as much defensive as ambitious. Jair Bolsonaro, barred from running after being convicted by Brazil's top electoral court of abusing his power ahead of the 2022 vote, has been trying to transfer his political weight to his son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who has spent recent months lobbying sympathetic figures in Washington rather than campaigning at home.

Lula's advisers argue that only he, with his decades of name recognition among poorer and working-class voters, can keep the Bolsonaro family's movement out of the presidential palace once more. Lula's own biography remains central to his appeal. Born into poverty in the northeastern state of Pernambuco, he lost a finger in a factory accident before rising through the metalworkers' union to found the Workers' Party, which has now led Brazil's government for 16 of the last 23 years. Supporters describe him as a pragmatic dealmaker capable of stitching together Brazil's notoriously fractured Congress; critics counter that his third term, beset by low growth and a restive legislature, has tested even his famed negotiating skills.

Whether Brazilian voters, many still frustrated by high living costs, want a fourth round of Lula is far from settled. Polling shows him roughly tied with potential right-wing challengers, a reminder that his comeback story is not guaranteed a sequel.