Vladimir Putin told an audience at the Valdai forum on Thursday that Russia would deploy all weapons at its disposal, including nuclear ones, if it judged that Kaliningrad, its heavily militarised exclave wedged between Lithuania and Poland, had come under direct attack. He insisted Moscow was not threatening anyone, but was merely reacting to Western leaders who, he claimed, were already preparing their publics for war in 2029 or 2030. The warning capped a tense week along Nato's eastern flank. Poland reported that a Russian helicopter had strayed into its airspace near Kaliningrad, while Lithuania said drone incursions had left its population feeling under constant threat.

In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Berlin was bracing for further hybrid attacks, including serious ones, after an explosive-laden drone was discovered in August on the tarmac at Leipzig airport, near Ukrainian cargo planes. Nato has rejected Russian claims that it is preparing to blockade Kaliningrad, describing itself as a purely defensive alliance and calling on Moscow to drop its nuclear rhetoric. Putin also used the speech to defend Russia's intensifying strikes on Ukrainian energy and economic infrastructure, framing them as retaliation for Kyiv's drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and Black Sea shipping. He acknowledged that those Ukrainian strikes had cost Russia roughly 1% of its GDP, an unusually candid admission from a leader who has otherwise downplayed the war's economic toll.

Kyiv maintains the refinery campaign is a direct response to Moscow using oil revenue to fund the invasion it launched in February 2022. With a key bridge in Kyiv hit by drones just hours after Putin spoke, the exchange of blame showed no sign of softening.