theSIGNAL ENVIRONMENT
11 November 2026
"What gets measured gets managed, but only what gets changed stays changed."
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Environment

An Oil Shock Has Flattened Global Emissions

Soaring fuel prices after the war in Iran have stalled carbon dioxide growth in 2026, but scientists warn this is not yet a peak.

In a car park in Lordstown, Ohio, rows of electric vehicles sit charging beside a battery plant, a small image of a large shift. This year, drivers from the American Midwest to Asian megacities have been pushed towards such scenes by a blunt force: the price of oil. Following the war in Iran, oil and gas costs have soared, and the effect is now visible in the global carbon accounts. According to the Global Carbon Budget, an annual assessment by scientists from scores of institutions, fossil fuel emissions are forecast to fall by about 0.

4% in 2026 compared with last year, essentially a plateau. Emissions from burning oil alone are expected to drop by 2% as motorists economise on fuel and switch to electric cars. The findings were presented at the Cop31 climate talks in Antalya, Turkey, and published in Nature Climate Change. Cheap solar and wind power have also played a part, meaning the decline reflects both a crisis and a genuine technological change.

Yet the authors caution against celebrating too early. About 38.2bn tonnes of CO2 will still be emitted this year, and the small fossil fuel decline was more than cancelled out by emissions from deforestation and land-use change, including major fires in south-east Asia. Several forces could reverse the trend: a coal expansion in India, a fall in oil prices, and US President Donald Trump's enthusiasm for fossil fuels.

"A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak, unless it is driven by structural change," said Glen Peters of the Cicero Centre for International Climate Research.

Photo: CHUTTERSNAP / Unsplash
Electric vehicles charge outside a battery manufacturing plant in Lordstown, Ohio, as fuel prices push drivers towards alternatives.
Discuss
  • Why might emissions falling because of high fuel prices be less durable than falls caused by policy or technology?
  • The report says deforestation emissions outweighed the fossil fuel decline. Should forests receive the same attention as oil and coal?
  • How might India's coal expansion be judged differently by wealthy nations and by Indian policymakers pursuing economic growth?
Science

Four Volunteers Emerge From a Year on "Mars"

On October 31, 2026, four NASA volunteers stepped into daylight after more than a year sealed inside a simulated Martian habitat in Texas, never having left Earth. Matthew Montgomery, James Spicer, Ross Elder and Ellen Ellis tended crops, rationed supplies and rehearsed outdoor "spacewalks" under delayed communications, which real Mars crews would face because signals take minutes to arrive. The experiment, called CHAPEA, suggests that independence, not distance alone, may be the hardest challenge.
  • If mission control cannot answer quickly, who should make life-or-death decisions on Mars?
Environment

When the Hajj Crossed 51°C

Zirrar Ali threw away his umbrella on the first morning of the 2024 Hajj, because the air around the Kaaba felt surprisingly mild. By the second day, temperatures in Mecca passed 51°C, and he was pushing his elderly father's wheelchair through the heat. Over 1,300 pilgrims reportedly died that week, and as climate change warms the calendar, who will decide when faith becomes too risky?
  • Should religious pilgrimages be rescheduled or limited as global temperatures make traditional dates dangerous for elderly participants?
"
A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak, unless it is driven by structural change.
Glen Peters, research professor at the Cicero Centre for International Climate Research
EUROPE · Environment
Cop31: what is at stake at the UN climate summit and what can it achieve?
GLOBAL · Environment
What’s the point? Ten years after the Paris treaty, are climate talks getting anywhere?
AMERICAS · Environment
Revealed: how a UK firm is spearheading growth in trade of US fracked ethane
OCEANIA · Environment
How do you broker UN climate talks when your own country is a big coal and gas exporter? Chris Bowen is about to find out
theSIGNAL IN THE LAB
1VOCABULARY
plateausoared
economisecancelled outstructural change
simulatedrationed
2GRAMMAR FOCUS
Reported speech — statements, questions, commands with tense shift
When we report what someone said, the verb usually moves one step back in time (is → was, will → would, have emitted → had emitted). Reported questions use normal statement word order with if/whether or a question word, and reported commands use an infinitive with 'to'.
was · would · had · if · to · could · were
  1. Glen Peters said that a drop in emissions in one year not a peak unless structural change drove it.
  2. The authors warned that several forces reverse the trend, including a coal expansion in India.
  3. Scientists explained that emissions from deforestation and land-use change more than cancelled out the small fossil fuel decline.
  4. A journalist asked the researchers the plateau reflected a genuine technological change or simply a temporary crisis.
  5. The organisers told the pilgrims avoid walking outdoors during the hottest part of the day.
  6. Zirrar Ali said that the air around the Kaaba surprisingly mild on the first morning.
3IDIOMS
Define each idiom in your own words. Then write one in a sentence of your own.
  1. a blunt force (as in 'pushed by a blunt force: the price of oil')
  2. to cancel out
  3. to celebrate too early / to jump the gun
  4. to reverse the trend
  5. an uncomfortable question
4CRITICAL THINKING
The three stories each describe humans pushing against environmental or physical limits, whether by accident, necessity or design. Choose two of them and compare what they suggest about whether people change behaviour mainly because of crisis or because of careful planning. What evidence from the articles supports your view, and what would you want to know that the articles do not tell you?
5CREATIVE · HEADLINES
Write a headline for the top story in each of the following styles. One line each, no explanation:
  • TABLOID NEWSPAPER
  • LUXURY MAGAZINE
  • ACTIVIST BLOG
6WRITING
Imagine you are one of the four volunteers leaving the Mars habitat in Texas, or a driver in Lordstown who has just switched to an electric car because of fuel prices. Write a short diary entry (about 150 words) describing how the experience has changed the way you think about dependence, whether on fuel, on supplies or on other people.
7DEGREES OF EXTREMITY
Complete each ladder from mild to strong.
  • fall slightly→→
  • rise gradually→→
  • mild→→
  • worrying→→
  • a setback→→
  • stay level→→
8SPEAKING
  1. Which would change your habits more: expensive fuel or a carbon tax?
  2. Would you choose an electric car if petrol became cheap again?
  3. How do you cope personally when the weather becomes dangerously hot?
  4. Could you live sealed in a small habitat for a whole year?