As Brazil heads into a presidential runoff, a murdered journalist's warnings about the Bolsonaro family and the rainforest feel newly urgent.
In 2018, a few weeks before Brazil's first-round vote, the British journalist Dom Phillips typed a message that now reads like a forecast. "I don't think I have ever been so negative about Brazil's future," he wrote to a fellow Guardian contributor, after a week in Manaus, where almost everyone he met seemed ready to vote for Jair Bolsonaro. If the former army captain won, he asked, what would it be like to live there? His answer, given in the same exchange, was that a Bolsonaro victory would mean more deaths, more destruction of the Amazon rainforest and more danger for reporters.
Phillips was killed four years ago, together with the Brazilian indigenous expert Bruno Pereira. Now Brazil is preparing for a runoff this Sunday in which a member of the same family is once more a favourite to win. Polls suggest that Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president's son, is narrowly ahead of the Workers' Party incumbent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The gap lies within the margin of error, however, and Lula appears to have gained momentum, so the outcome remains genuinely open.
What is clear is that the stakes reach well beyond Brazil, because the Amazon helps regulate climate and rainfall across several continents. It would be a mistake to remember Phillips as a partisan. Messages from an earlier election show him backing the centre-right challenger Aécio Neves, because he believed the then Workers' Party government had become too entangled in corruption. His test was practical rather than ideological: did a government serve people and the planet?