theSIGNAL ENVIRONMENT
12 September 2026
"Nature is not a problem to be solved; it is a system to be understood before it is too late."
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Environment

Nature's Own Emissions Could Add 30% More Warming

A new study warns that thawing permafrost, wildfires and warming wetlands are unleashing a "hidden multiplier" absent from the models that guide global climate policy.

In February 2021, fumaroles — vents releasing gas — were already visible above the cattail swamps at California's Salton Sea. They were a visible signal of something that climate models have long struggled to count: the planet itself fighting back. A study published in Environmental Research Letters now puts a number on that signal, and it is a large one. As global temperatures rise, four natural systems are releasing the greenhouse gases they once stored.

Permafrost across Siberia, Canada and Alaska is thawing and releasing methane trapped for millennia. Forests and wetlands dried by prolonged heat are burning more frequently and more fiercely. Lakes and rivers are warming and emitting carbon dioxide from their beds. Each of these processes feeds back into the very warming that triggered it — a self-reinforcing loop that scientists call a feedback cycle.

Researchers found that together, these four sources are on track to amplify human-caused global heating by between 20% and 30% before the end of this century, adding an estimated 0.2°C to 0.4°C to the global average temperature. That range may sound narrow, but fractions of a degree carry enormous consequences.

The United Nations acknowledged last week that the internationally agreed ceiling of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels will be breached within years, making record heatwaves and wildfires strike faster and last longer. An additional 0.4°C on top of already-revised projections could push several climate tipping points significantly closer.

Photo: Marc Snailum / Unsplash
Fumaroles rise from warming wetlands at California's Salton Sea, a visible sign of natural carbon release accelerating globally.
Discuss
  • Why might natural feedback loops have been left out of official climate models for so long?
  • What are the four natural systems identified in the study, and how does each release greenhouse gases?
  • The UN says the 1.5°C target will be breached within years — should governments now plan for a higher temperature ceiling?
Science

Dinosaur Dung Holds Clue to Bird Survival

In 2016, palaeontologist David DeMar Jr. was crawling up a rocky outcrop in northeastern Montana when a dark, reddish-brown nodule — roughly half the size of a golf ball — stopped him cold. Inside it was a feather, exquisitely preserved inside fossilised dinosaur faeces, or coprolite, likely produced by a T. rex or Nanotyrannus 66 million years ago. The feather, described in Current Biology, is considered the finest specimen yet recovered from the Cretaceous Period. Lead author Jingmai O'Connor, associate curator of fossil reptiles at Chicago's Field Museum, says it may help explain why one bird lineage — Neornithes, ancestors of every living bird — outlasted the asteroid impact that erased nearly all other dinosaurs. No researcher had previously thought to search coprolites for feathers, meaning this find opens an entirely new archive of evidence.…
  • What physical trait most likely helped Neornithes survive while other dinosaurs perished?
Environment

One in Nine Migratory Birds Face Extinction

When the slender-billed curlew was declared extinct last year, it became the first bird lost from mainland Eurasia and Africa in centuries — a marker that scientists at BirdLife International say reflects a much wider crisis. Their quadrennial State of the World's Birds report finds that 45% of migratory species are declining, driven by intensive farming, illegal hunting — estimated at up to 42.7 million birds annually across Europe and the Mediterranean — pollution, and climate change. The findings were released at a summit in Nairobi, where three development banks committed $6 billion to habitat protection along global flyways, raising the question of whether financial pledges alone can reverse losses that have been accelerating for 150 years.
  • Should governments make flyway protection legally binding rather than voluntary?
"
This hidden multiplier is missing from the models guiding climate policy, so those models are likely underestimating how much warming is coming – and overestimating how much carbon we can still afford to emit.
Sam Abernethy, scientist, Spark Climate Solutions
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theSIGNAL IN THE LAB
1VOCABULARY
fumarolesfeedback cycle
tipping pointsflywayscoprolite
amplifyquadrennial
2GRAMMAR FOCUS
Relative clauses — defining vs non-defining with commas
A defining relative clause identifies which person or thing you mean and has no commas (e.g. 'the bird that survived'). A non-defining relative clause adds extra information about something already identified and is separated by commas (e.g.…
which · who · that · where · whose · when
  1. The study, was published in Environmental Research Letters, warns that natural feedbacks could add 30% more warming.
  2. Scientists call the process turns warming into further warming a feedback cycle.
  3. Sam Abernethy, led the research for Spark Climate Solutions, says governments may have underestimated the problem.
  4. The Salton Sea is the place fumaroles were already visible above the cattail swamps in February 2021.
  5. The slender-billed curlew, was declared extinct last year, is the first bird lost from mainland Eurasia and Africa in centuries.
  6. David DeMar Jr. found a nodule contained an exquisitely preserved feather inside fossilised dinosaur faeces.
3DEPENDENT PREPOSITIONS
Complete each phrase with the correct preposition. All from today's articles.
  1. These feedbacks are largely absent ___ the models that governments use.
  2. The warming was triggered ___ rising global temperatures.
  3. Scientists put a number ___ the signal.
  4. Losses have been accelerating ___ 150 years.
  5. The feather was preserved inside fossilised faeces produced ___ a T. rex.
4CRITICAL THINKING
The three articles together suggest that humanity is losing ground simultaneously on multiple fronts — atmospheric, ecological, and evolutionary understanding. Given that financial pledges, modelling gaps, and fossil discoveries are all happening at the same time, where should scientific and political resources be most urgently concentrated, and who should decide?
5CREATIVE · HEADLINES
Write a headline for the top story in each of the following styles. One line each, no explanation:
  • TABLOID NEWSPAPER
  • LUXURY MAGAZINE
  • ACTIVIST BLOG
6WRITING
Sam Abernethy warns that no future model revision can undo the consequences of underestimating natural feedbacks. Write a formal letter from a concerned scientist to a government minister, arguing that emissions targets must be urgently recalculated to account for these missing variables.
7DEGREES OF EXTREMITY
Complete each ladder from mild to strong.
  • warm→→
  • declining→→
  • concerned→→
  • unusual→→
  • problem→→
  • reduce→→
8SPEAKING
  1. Which financial pledge from Nairobi do you find most credible?
  2. Could fossil faeces change how palaeontologists approach future fieldwork?
  3. Who bears greater responsibility for flyway loss — farmers or governments?
  4. Should climate tipping points trigger automatic emergency legislation worldwide?