Ancient bones and modern fire data together reveal how climate change is rewriting the rules of survival on the Eurasian steppe.
In a shallow pit in Eastern Mongolia, archaeologist Sodnomjamts Damchaabadgar brushes soil from two bronze-age skulls while the steppe wind tears at the rim above him. Working from a nearby ger — the round nomadic tent designed to be raised or struck within hours — he has found evidence suggesting that Mongolian peoples were domesticating horses as early as 2,000 BCE. The reason, he argues, was not only warfare. "Horses gave them the speed they needed to escape from the grassland's greatest natural threat: fire," he says.
That threat has grown dramatically. Over the past 80 years, average temperatures across the Eurasian grasslands have risen by 2°C, drying the vegetation and lengthening the window during which a single spark can become a catastrophe. Between 1981 and 1995, roughly 1.74 million hectares of forest and steppe burned each year.
Then, in just the four years from 1996 to 1999, more than 30 million hectares were consumed — a rate that stunned ecologists and government agencies alike. The fire seasons of 2022 and 2025 have since deepened public alarm across the country. What makes the crisis harder to contain is its human dimension. A recent study found that approximately 95% of steppe and forest fires in Mongolia are ignited by human activity — careless burning, discarded cigarettes, or smouldering debris left unattended.
Once a fire escapes its source, the flat, open terrain and prevailing winds carry it with little resistance across the landscape.