In Geneva, economists at the World Trade Organization have spent the past year measuring something they never expected to see: trade that keeps growing even as the system meant to govern it keeps breaking down. Since COVID-19 shuttered factories from Shenzhen to São Paulo, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East cut off oil, gas and fertilizer routes, the WTO's chief economist, Robert Staiger, says the trading system has faced its most serious and sustained disruption in the 80 years since it was built. Yet the headline numbers look almost defiant. Global goods trade rose 4.

6% last year, and services trade grew 5.3%, according to the WTO's latest annual report. China kept its position as the world's largest goods exporter, the United States remained its biggest importer, and the European Union placed second in both categories. Much of that growth, though, rests on a narrow foundation: semiconductors and hardware feeding the global AI data-center boom accounted for roughly one-sixth of goods trade but close to half of all trade growth, concentrated almost entirely in Asia, while Africa, Latin America and much of Europe barely registered.

Staiger cautions that this single sector may be disguising weakness elsewhere. "Strong AI exports may be masking some of the drop in world trade that might otherwise be occurring," he told AFP. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump's tariffs, the steepest in decades, have pushed Washington to sidestep the WTO's equal-treatment principle in favor of country-by-country deals. Still, about 72% of world goods trade runs on the WTO's core rules, down from 80% in 2022 but far from collapse.

Since roughly 2015, global trade has grown only in step with the world economy, not faster, suggesting globalization stalled well before Trump returned to office.