On a Wednesday deadline that passed without a signature, the United States chose not to renew the USMCA — the very trade agreement that Donald Trump once called "the largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement ever achieved." US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed the decision in a formal statement, noting that Washington would continue talks with Ottawa and Mexico City to address what he described as the deal's shortcomings and persistent trade deficits. The agreement technically remains in force for a further ten years, but it will now be subjected to annual reviews — a mechanism that transforms what was once a settled framework into an ongoing negotiation. The stakes are considerable.

North American trade in goods and services reached nearly $2 trillion in 2024, a figure that reflects the deeply integrated supply chains that the USMCA was specifically designed to support. Among its most consequential provisions is a rule of origin requiring that 75% of automotive components be manufactured within North America in order to qualify for zero tariffs. That single requirement reshaped how carmakers sourced parts across the continent, and any renegotiation of such rules threatens to disrupt production timelines that have been planned years in advance. The irony of the current situation is difficult to overlook.

When Trump signed the USMCA into law in January 2020, he presented it as a decisive correction to NAFTA, which he had long argued offshored American jobs and devastated manufacturing communities. Within six years, he was describing that same agreement as irrelevant.