Two dates are now shaping a war that has little to do with calendars. Israel votes on October 27, and the United States follows on November 3. Both governments, which began their campaign against Iran in late February, are being forced to weigh battlefield ambitions against the mood of voters. For Donald Trump, the arithmetic is uncomfortable.

Polls suggest that high energy prices, a direct consequence of the conflict, are damaging the Republican Party ahead of the midterms. On October 8 the president said on social media that America would not attack Iran before the election, pointing to productive talks with Tehran. The last American strikes came in early September. Yet preparations appear to continue.

The New York Times, citing senior American officials, reported on Wednesday that the two allies have drawn up specific plans for a brief but intense operation against nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and Iran's stockpile of missiles and drones. The aim, one official said, would be to squeeze an already weakened economy and force diplomatic concessions, since negotiations have produced nothing. A blockade of Iranian oil exports in the Strait of Hormuz is already draining government revenue. Axios has reported that Central Command was told to finish preparations for major combat, and two American carrier groups are in the Arabian Sea, with a third due by late November.