On a Tuesday morning in June, tankers and cargo vessels moved carefully through the Gulf of Oman, tracing routes that connect the Strait of Hormuz to the Arabian Sea — waterways through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply passes. That image of cautious commerce captured something essential about the crisis now unfolding: the gap between economic necessity and military escalation has rarely felt so narrow. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued its sharpest warning yet on Saturday, threatening to walk away entirely from negotiations with the United States if Washington continued its military strikes. Tehran stated that it had already acted in response, targeting American forces stationed in Bahrain and Kuwait overnight on Sunday.

The attacks came after the US struck ten Iranian sites, in a pattern of tit-for-tat strikes that has made each round of diplomacy harder to restart than the last. Neither side has confirmed the full extent of casualties or damage, and both governments have offered sharply different accounts of who struck first. The conflict is spreading beyond Iran's borders in ways that complicate any settlement. Israel's defence minister announced that Israeli forces had been instructed to prepare for an extended stay in Lebanon, a signal that a second front along the eastern Mediterranean may be solidifying.

Airstrikes on the southern Lebanese town of Nabatieh al-Fawqa killed at least one person and wounded two more, adding to a toll that has mounted steadily since hostilities widened earlier this year.