Oil tankers that had sat stranded for weeks began moving again this month, carrying Iranian crude at something close to a fair price for the first time in years. The trigger was a memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 between Iran and the United States, which included 60-day waivers on sanctions covering crude exports, refined petroleum products, shipping, insurance and banking transactions. For a country that had just endured nearly four months of war with the US and Israel on top of years of crippling economic isolation, the waivers landed like emergency oxygen. The numbers behind Iran's crisis are stark.

Before the war even began in late February, inflation was running at close to 50% and basic goods were in severe shortage. Analysts estimate the conflict caused a further 10% contraction in the economy, piling infrastructure damage onto already shattered finances. At the height of the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian oil exports collapsed to around 64,000 barrels per day — a fraction of what the country needs to function, according to maritime tracking data from TankerTrackers. Even before the war, Iran had been selling oil mostly to independent Chinese refiners at discounts of up to $15 below the Brent crude benchmark, relying on a shadow fleet of tankers to dodge sanctions.

Worse, much of that revenue became trapped in foreign escrow and clearing accounts, unreachable for imports or government spending.