Forty-seven people were dead in southern Lebanon before Friday morning was over. Israel and Hezbollah had, according to a US official, agreed to a ceasefire — yet rescue workers in the city of Nabatieh counted at least twelve Israeli air strikes after the truce was declared at 16:00 local time. The Israeli military confirmed the ceasefire was in effect, then almost immediately walked that back: a spokesman said forces would continue to "remove immediate threats." Hezbollah, for its part, said nothing officially about the deal at all.

The chaos on the ground is a direct challenge to the broader diplomatic framework that Donald Trump has been promoting. The US-brokered memorandum of understanding was meant to freeze fighting in Lebanon as part of a wider arrangement involving Iran. Tehran has already accused Washington of failing to control Israel, and Trump has done little to quiet that argument — in a striking public break, he accused his ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, of "senselessly killing civilians" in the campaign against Hezbollah. That kind of language from an American president toward an Israeli leader is nearly without precedent.

Hardliners on both sides are pulling the deal apart from opposite ends. Israel's far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, reacting to the deaths of four Israeli soldiers killed by Hezbollah in Lebanon, demanded that "Lebanon must burn." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi fired back, warning that any breach of the memorandum's commitments "will be attributed to the US." Meanwhile, Hezbollah's secretary general, Sheikh Naim Qassem, declared bluntly that "the project to eliminate Hezbollah has failed.

" Netanyahu is under sustained domestic pressure to keep military operations running, while Hezbollah has pledged to fight on as long as Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon.