Forty-five. That is the number of Cybercabs Tesla had registered in the state of Texas as its much-anticipated robotaxi event unfolded in Austin — a figure that puts its ambitions in sharp relief against those of Waymo, which already operates thousands of driverless rides every week across multiple American cities. The contrast was not lost on analysts watching a company that has staked its entire future valuation on artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles. The Austin event itself did little to settle the debate.

Elon Musk, who has spent years insisting that robotics and self-driving technology are the true measure of Tesla's worth, did not attend — a puzzling absence that was noted widely. Wall Street registered its own verdict: the stock moved sideways. The atmosphere, by multiple accounts, was subdued compared with the high-energy product launches Tesla has staged in the past. What the evening could not disguise was a fundamental question that has followed the company for years — is Tesla genuinely remaking urban transport, or is it, at its core, simply a carmaker that happens to write its own software?

The regulatory dimension may prove the most consequential. Within hours of the first Cybercabs appearing on public roads, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened an investigation. Current federal rules require manual controls — brake pedals, a steering wheel — in any vehicle operated on public roads. Tesla chose to self-certify, a process normally reserved for conventional, human-driven cars.