A new British Geological Survey dataset reveals that hotter, drier summers could destabilise the foundations of nearly two million homes by 2070.
Here is a quiet disaster unfolding in slow motion. Right now, beneath the streets of Camden, Islington and Barnet, clay soils are responding to every dry summer by shrinking — and every time they shrink, the foundations of the houses above them shift a little more. Scientists at the British Geological Survey (BGS) have just mapped exactly where in Great Britain this process, known as shrink-swell subsidence, is likely to become a serious problem. The answer, for millions of homeowners, is unsettling.
The BGS combined geological data about soil behaviour with climate projections for rainfall and temperature across the coming century. What they found is a "double whammy," in the words of BGS scientist Anna Harrison. London is built on clay that is already sensitive to moisture changes, and it is also the region where rainfall and temperature shifts are projected to be most dramatic. London's sheer density of buildings makes everything worse.
"These properties might have foundations that currently can withstand the changes in moisture," Harrison said, "but you might find in future there's going to be more movement."
The numbers are striking.