Xi Jinping walked into the White House this week with no pressure to leave with a deal — and, according to analysts in Berlin, neither did Donald Trump. The meeting comes after a failed May summit in Beijing produced nothing concrete, and after US and Chinese business leaders gathered in Düsseldorf last week for an economic dialogue that could not ignore the obvious: the world's two largest economies are locked in a rivalry that is reshaping global trade, technology, and diplomacy all at once. "Xi really doesn't need a breakthrough in Washington," said Mikko Huotari, director of MERICS, a China-focused think tank based in Berlin. "He needs more time.

And the same is true for Washington." Huotari, speaking at a policy briefing last week, described the current moment as a "strategic stalemate" — a condition that suits both capitals for now, even as it quietly damages everyone else. A deal could still help Trump's Republican Party before November's midterm elections, but that outcome is far from guaranteed. Beneath the diplomatic surface, a fierce technological contest is being fought in parallel.

Washington bans the export of high-performance chips to China; Beijing retaliates by restricting rare earth elements that are essential for making semiconductors. Artificial intelligence has emerged as the sharpest edge of this rivalry. Xi has called for international cooperation on AI development, while Trump regards regulation as a threat to American dominance in the field. After meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that both sides have already discussed a notification mechanism for sharing information about AI security incidents.

Europe is watching all of this with growing unease.