As delegates gather in Turkey for Cop31, the UN weather agency says the planet's energy imbalance has hit a record high.
In 1992, when world leaders signed the UN climate convention, carbon dioxide made up 356.42 parts per million of the atmosphere. Last year the figure was 426.8.
That gap, a rise of 53% since the Industrial Revolution began, is the backdrop to Cop31, which opens on Monday in the Turkish resort city of Antalya, and to a sobering update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The agency reports that the difference between the solar energy Earth absorbs and the energy it sends back to space is now the largest since measurements began. The rate of increase has also sped up: ocean heat data suggest the imbalance grew by 0.3 watts per square metre each decade between 2001 and 2025, against only 0.
13 watts across the longer period from 1960. Because the oceans absorb about 90% of the excess heat, they bear the clearest signature. Sea surface temperatures reached monthly records, sea level is the highest ever recorded, and 2026 is expected to be the tenth consecutive year of record ocean heat. Surface readings tell a similar story.
From January to September, the global average was roughly 1.47C above the preindustrial level, and 2026 is on course to be among the four warmest years ever, which would make 2023 to 2026 the four hottest in the record. This is despite the year opening with La Niña conditions, which normally restrain global temperatures. Scientists warn that the accumulating heat will intensify heatwaves, droughts and tropical cyclones.
António Guterres, the UN secretary general, linked the data to an approaching El Niño and to unequal suffering.