On a July afternoon in 2025, a worker bolted solar panels onto a rooftop in Kensington, Maryland. It was an ordinary scene, yet it now sits at the center of one of the most consequential political arguments in the United States: whether the country's climate policy can survive a second Trump term, and what November's midterm elections might change. If the polls can be believed, Democrats could win back the House and the Senate, and gain as many as four governorships. That would not undo the damage their critics say has already been done.

A Democratic Congress could not restore the parts of the Inflation Reduction Act that Republicans gutted, and it could not pass new laws that President Trump would simply veto. Its power would be that of obstruction and bargaining rather than construction. Even so, the leverage could be significant. A Democratic House would force the White House to negotiate over federal budgets.

"Many appropriations begin in the House, and these are huge bills that have to pass, so it's possible that some pro-climate provisions could be put in some of the appropriations legislation," said Michael Gerrard, founder and director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law. Presidents often sign spending bills containing clauses they dislike, because the alternative is a shutdown. The House could also issue subpoenas and open investigations, for example into the administration's intervention in a lawsuit that alleges Elon Musk's datacenter in Mississippi breaks the Clean Air Act by using portable gas generators. The election is also a test of strategy.