On 28 February, US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a war that would, within weeks, close the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas tankers and send crude prices to $126 a barrel. The geopolitical shock was felt not just in petrol stations and airline boardrooms but in the boiler rooms of millions of European homes. By the end of June, buyers across twelve European countries had purchased 1.16 million residential heat pumps — an 11% rise on the same period in 2025, according to the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA).

The connection between a naval chokepoint in the Persian Gulf and a heating appliance in a house in Düsseldorf or Lisbon is less surprising than it sounds. Heat pumps do not burn fuel; they move thermal energy from one place to another, making them both efficient and largely immune to gas price spikes. When fossil fuel costs soar, the economics shift sharply in their favour — provided electricity is affordable. That condition has begun to be met.

Following the outbreak of the conflict, the European Commission published an electrification action plan urging member states to ensure that taxes on electricity should rise no higher than those on gas. Belgium and the Netherlands moved quickly; Germany's existing subsidy scheme has already made heat pumps the single most installed heating technology in the country. The EHPA has argued for years that electricity pricing is the decisive variable in consumer choice, and the current data appear to confirm it. In the United Kingdom, which lies outside the EU framework, electricity still costs more than four times as much as gas — a ratio that continues to suppress demand.