theSIGNAL ENVIRONMENT
25 September 2026
"The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it."
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Environment

Betting Markets Turn Climate Crisis Into a Wager

As prediction platforms report explosive growth in weather bets, scientists warn that gamifying the climate emergency distances the public from its human cost.

On the morning the Los Angeles fires crested the hills above Pacific Palisades in January 2025, some people were watching the smoke on television. Others were placing bets on it. Large wagers appeared on US prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket as the flames spread — a detail that shocked climate scientist Kaitlyn Trudeau of Climate Central, whose own grandfather lost his home in those fires. Both platforms have since banned wildfire betting, citing the risk of incentivising arson, but the episode exposed something broader: a fast-growing market that now treats planetary breakdown as a financial opportunity.

Kalshi, one of the largest US-based prediction markets, reported 500% growth in weather and climate wagers over the past year, pushing that segment of its business to a valuation of $1.1 billion. The company has since partnered with the Weather Company, owner of the Weather Channel, to lend scientific credibility to its climate-related contracts. Rival platform Polymarket, which gained prominence during the 2024 US election cycle, is also expanding into weather-related bets.

Together, they now allow users to stake money on outcomes ranging from tomorrow's urban temperature to the pace of Arctic ice loss — variables that, until recently, were the exclusive province of peer-reviewed modelling. For many climate researchers, this commercialisation of uncertainty crosses a line. "I'm not against prediction markets in general, but we need to be clear about the downsides," Trudeau said. "They aren't going to reduce the risks of climate change or solve climate change.

" Her concern is structural: when suffering becomes a tradable asset, the incentive shifts from prevention to prediction. The same data that should motivate policy action is instead absorbed into a pricing mechanism that profits regardless of the outcome.

Photo: Ahmer Kalam / Unsplash
Smoke rises over Los Angeles in 2025, as online platforms accepted live bets on the unfolding disaster.
Discuss
  • Why might scientists feel uneasy about people betting on climate disasters, even if the bets are legal?
  • Kalshi banned wildfire betting due to arson risk. What other climate bets might carry unintended harmful incentives?
  • Do prediction markets reflect public understanding of climate science, or could they distort it? Explain your reasoning.
Science

U.S. Suicide Rate Plateaus After 2017 Rise

In 2017, the age-adjusted U.S. suicide rate peaked at 14.0 deaths per 100,000 people — up from 13.0 in 2014 — and has remained essentially flat through 2024, according to a National Center for Health Statistics data brief. Between 2023 and 2024, rates fell for women aged 25 and older and for men aged 15 to 44, with declines also recorded in suffocation- and poisoning-related methods. Geography tells a sharper story: rates ranged from 5.7 in Washington D.C.…
  • Why might suicide rates in Alaska be nearly five times higher than in Washington D.C.?
Environment

A Lake Killed Overnight in East Sussex

On the morning of 20 June 2024, Alistair and Simon Gould walked down to Furnace Brook — their 2.4-hectare fishing lake in East Sussex — and found more than 2,000 fish floating dead on the surface. Fifteen species, including carp, tench and hardy eels that had crawled onto the banks to die, were wiped out in a single event. The lake had taken over a decade of ecological restoration work to develop. Alistair, an ecological consultant, and his wife Diane, 68, had purchased the eight-hectare High Weald site in 2013 with plans to restore its entire ecosystem. Their son Simon had managed the fishery for over 15 years.…
  • Who should be held legally responsible when a private lake is destroyed by pollution?
"
They aren't going to reduce the risks of climate change or solve climate change.
Kaitlyn Trudeau, Climate Scientist, Climate Central
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theSIGNAL IN THE LAB
1VOCABULARY
tradable assetpeer-reviewed modelling
ecological restorationage-adjustedprediction markets
lend credibilityexclusive province
2GRAMMAR FOCUS
Third conditional — hypothetical past
Use the third conditional to talk about hypothetical situations in the past and their imagined results: 'If + past perfect, would/could/might + have + past participle.' Both clauses refer to things that did not happen.
would have placed · had not spread · could have been · had known · would have motivated · might have survived · had purchased
  1. If the Los Angeles fires so rapidly, fewer people would have lost their homes in Pacific Palisades.
  2. Kaitlyn Trudeau's grandfather his home if the fire had been contained in time.
  3. If the platforms earlier about the risks, they might have banned wildfire betting before January 2025.
  4. The climate data, if it policymakers, could have led to stronger prevention measures instead of prediction markets.
  5. If the Gould family the High Weald site in 2013, they would never have invested a decade in ecological restoration.
  6. More than 2,000 fish if the cause of the contamination had been identified and stopped in time.
3PHRASAL VERBS
Match the phrasal verb (1–6) to its correct definition (A–F). All six appear in today's articles.
  1. 1. crested (the hills)
  2. 2. wiped out
  3. 3. lend credibility to
  4. 4. absorbed into
  5. 5. crawled onto
4CRITICAL THINKING
The three articles — on climate betting, a destroyed lake, and suicide rates — each involve data being used in very different ways: to profit, to investigate, and to inform policy. To what extent does the purpose behind data use change its ethical weight? Consider whose interests are served in each case.
5CREATIVE · HEADLINES
Write a headline for the top story in each of the following styles. One line each, no explanation:
  • TABLOID NEWSPAPER
  • LUXURY MAGAZINE
  • ACTIVIST BLOG
6WRITING
A climate scientist argues that prediction markets turn suffering into a commodity; a platform founder argues they sharpen collective foresight. Write a short formal letter (120–150 words) from one to the other, using evidence from the article to support your chosen position.
7DEGREES OF EXTREMITY
Complete each ladder from mild to strong. Fill in the missing word or phrase from the articles and your vocabulary knowledge.
  • concerned→→
  • dipped→→
  • growing→→
  • damage→→
  • unusual→→
  • profit from→→
8SPEAKING
  1. Can financial incentives ever accelerate climate solutions rather than hindering them?
  2. What local conditions might explain a fivefold suicide rate gap within one country?
  3. Should ecological restoration work carry any legal protection against upstream pollution?
  4. How does turning uncertainty into a pricing mechanism change political will to act?