theSIGNAL ENVIRONMENT
24 September 2026
"The planet does not negotiate; it simply presents the bill."
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Environment

Super El Niño Could Kill 451,000 in Nine Months

Climate scientists project a catastrophic heat toll stretching from Nigeria to Indonesia, before the phenomenon has even reached its peak.

On a Monday in mid-2024, the current El Niño broke the highest temperature ever recorded for such an event — not at its peak, but still months before it was expected to reach one. Scientists at the Climate Impact Lab called it "mind-blowing" and, with a nod to the scale of destruction being measured, "Godzilla-level". Their latest projections attach a number to that scale: 451,000 additional heat deaths are now estimated to occur between June 2026 and February 2027 — a toll that sits entirely on top of the early deaths already driven by the longer-term climate crisis. The countries bearing the greatest burden are concentrated in the tropics.

Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil are projected to be the five most affected nations over the coming six months. South Sudan alone is expected to lose 5,600 people to excess heat. The Sahel region of Africa and much of south-east Asia are identified as heavily exposed zones. The United States, ranked within the top 20 most affected nations, is projected to record roughly 3,500 additional heat deaths — a figure that underlines how the phenomenon reaches beyond the developing world, though it strikes hardest where infrastructure is weakest.

Further deaths from El Niño-linked droughts, wildfires and flooding are expected on top of these heat estimates. Researchers stress that the regional precision of the projections is deliberate: identifying where deaths will concentrate means governments can act before the peak arrives. Better heat-alert systems, cooling centres, reinforced medical staffing and legal protections for outdoor workers are among the measures that could reduce the final toll. Prof Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, framed the 451,000 figure in human rather than statistical terms — these are, he said, parents, children and neighbours living ordinary lives.

Photo: ‪Salah Darwish / Unsplash
Floodwaters overwhelm communities in South Sudan, one of the nations hardest hit by El Niño-linked climate extremes.
Discuss
  • What does the phrase 'postcard from our future' suggest about how scientists view this El Niño event?
  • Why might the researchers have chosen to present heat-death projections at a regional rather than a global level?
  • Which of the protective measures mentioned — cooling centres, heat forecasts, medical staffing — do you think would be hardest to implement, and why?
Science

Hurricane Polo Threatens Mexico's Pacific Coast

On Wednesday, the US National Hurricane Center downgraded Hurricane Polo from a Category 5 to a Category 4 storm — yet the Pacific hurricane, one of the most powerful of the season, continues to threaten south-western Mexico with destructive winds and torrential rain. Forecasters do not expect Polo to make direct landfall, but its slow movement is keeping coastal communities on high alert. The storm is being sustained by exceptionally warm ocean waters, a condition that scientists attribute directly to the El Niño climate phenomenon currently reshaping weather patterns across multiple continents.…
  • Should coastal governments evacuate residents even when a hurricane won't make landfall?
Environment

El Niño Silences the Atlantic Hurricane Season

By mid-September, the Atlantic had produced zero hurricanes — a record-breaking absence. In an average year, three would already have formed; the previous latest date for a first hurricane was 11 September, recorded in both 2002 and 2013. NOAA had already forecast a quiet season, predicting just three to six hurricanes against a historical average of seven. El Niño is the direct cause: warmer Pacific surface temperatures increase wind shear over the Atlantic, disrupting the stable atmospheric conditions that tropical storms need to intensify. The calm, however, is not evenly distributed.…
  • Does a record-quiet Atlantic season mean we are actually safer from storm damage?
"
"The estimate of 451,000 people is such a large number that it can be numbing, but it is made up of parents and children, grandparents and neighbours, people going to work, caring for families, and living their lives."
Prof Michael Greenstone, Co-founder, Climate Impact Lab, University of Chicago
ASIA · Environment
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AMERICAS · Environment
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EUROPE · Environment
Weatherwatch: wildfires driven by global heating destroy UK bird habitats
theSIGNAL IN THE LAB
1VOCABULARY
wind shearexcess heat
torrential rainhigh alertheat-alert systems
postcard from our futuremake direct landfall
2GRAMMAR FOCUS
Reported speech — statements, questions, commands with tense shift
When reporting what someone said in the past, verbs shift back one tense (e.g. 'is' becomes 'was', 'will' becomes 'would', 'can' becomes 'could'). Questions and commands follow the same backshift rule, with question word order replaced by statement word order.
would · was · had broken · could · were · said · warned
  1. Scientists at the Climate Impact Lab said the current El Niño the highest temperature ever recorded for such an event.
  2. Prof Greenstone stated that the 451,000 figure parents, children and neighbours living ordinary lives.
  3. Researchers warned that the regional precision of the projections deliberate, as it allowed governments to act before the peak arrived.
  4. NOAA forecasters predicted that El Niño produce unusually powerful storms before the season closed.
  5. Scientists explained that warmer Pacific surface temperatures disrupt the stable atmospheric conditions that tropical storms need to intensify.
  6. The US National Hurricane Center announced that Hurricane Polo downgraded from a Category 5 to a Category 4 storm.
3DEPENDENT PREPOSITIONS
Complete each phrase with the correct preposition. All from today's articles.
  1. The countries bearing the greatest burden are concentrated _____ the tropics.
  2. These deaths sit entirely _____ top of those already driven by the climate crisis.
  3. Scientists attribute the warm waters directly _____ the El Niño phenomenon.
  4. The Sahel and south-east Asia are identified as heavily exposed _____.
  5. El Niño injects extra energy _____ the system, potentially producing powerful storms.
4CRITICAL THINKING
The articles describe El Niño as reshaping weather in opposite directions simultaneously — silencing the Atlantic while intensifying the Pacific. What does this uneven distribution of risk reveal about how we typically talk about climate events in the media, and whose experience tends to be centred or ignored?
5CREATIVE · HEADLINES
Write a headline for the top story in each of the following styles. One line each, no explanation:
  • TABLOID NEWSPAPER
  • LUXURY MAGAZINE
  • ACTIVIST BLOG
6WRITING
Prof Greenstone insisted on describing the projected deaths in human rather than statistical terms — parents, children, neighbours. Write a short paragraph (120–150 words) from the perspective of a local official in one of the five most-affected countries, addressed to their government, arguing for urgent funding for one specific protective measure before the El Niño peak arrives.
7DEGREES OF EXTREMITY
Complete each ladder from mild to strong.
  • warm→→
  • concerned→→
  • storm→→
  • affected→→
  • disrupted→→
  • unusual→→
8SPEAKING
  1. How might El Niño reshape global insurance and disaster-relief funding priorities?
  2. Should outdoor workers have a legal right to stop work in extreme heat?
  3. Why does the Pacific see more hurricanes while the Atlantic stays quiet?
  4. Who bears moral responsibility when a predictable climate event causes mass death?