New research shows that fires burning across Russia, Canada and southern Europe are silently adding to the UK's long-term air pollution burden — and the effect can linger for months.
In the summer of 2019, roughly half of the wildfire-related particle pollution recorded across the United Kingdom did not come from Europe at all. It drifted westward from fires burning deep inside Russia, carried by high-altitude winds that do not recognise national borders. That single statistic, drawn from a computer simulation developed by Damaris Tan at the University of Edinburgh, reframes what most people assume to be a distant environmental problem into a direct public health concern. The simulation, produced in collaboration with the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, models both wildfires and agricultural burning across the entire northern hemisphere.
Its findings are striking. Fires anywhere in the northern hemisphere can raise particle pollution levels in the UK, and the delay between a fire igniting and its smoke reaching British lungs can stretch to more than three months. In 2018, for example, wildfire emissions did not become negligible to the following year's air quality readings until well into 2019. Canadian fires, which dominated the northern hemisphere smoke record in 2023, were still contributing measurably to UK air quality figures in 2024 and 2025 — at levels that researchers estimate were more than double those of previous years.
The consequences are already visible closer to home. When fires swept through the Gironde department of south-western France and the Ávila region of Spain, sensors in both Bordeaux and Madrid recorded PM2.5 concentrations far above international health guidelines, according to Dr Mark Parrington of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. Across these events, wildfires now account for around 10 percent of the UK's total particle pollution load — a share that Professor Mathew Heal, also of the University of Edinburgh, warns is almost certain to grow.