In the summer of 2023, ocean surface temperatures in the central Pacific climbed to levels that left climate scientists reaching for unusual vocabulary. One word kept appearing in their reports: "Godzilla." The nickname, borrowed from the monster of Japanese cinema, was applied to the developing El Niño because of its predicted intensity — and because the consequences, analysts warned, could be felt not just in crop yields this season but in grocery bills well into 2028. El Niño is a naturally recurring warming of Pacific waters that disrupts rainfall patterns across every inhabited continent.

It brings drought to Australia and southern Africa, floods to parts of South America, and weakened monsoons to South Asia. When an El Niño arrives against the backdrop of a planet already warmed by greenhouse gas emissions, the effects are amplified in ways that earlier generations of farmers never had to plan for. Scientists now estimate that this cycle could push global average temperatures up by as much as 3.6°C above pre-industrial levels in peak months — a figure that, even briefly, crosses the threshold that the Paris Agreement was specifically designed to prevent.

The food system is where these atmospheric pressures become human realities. Commodity analysts tracking wheat, rice, and maize markets have noted that supply shocks caused by climate disruptions rarely resolve within a single harvest season; they cascade through trade networks and storage systems for years. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, which import significant shares of their staple grains, are considered most exposed to the coming price volatility.