A lethal combination of climate change and persistent high pressure has pushed temperatures across India and Pakistan to historically dangerous levels.
Temperatures across large parts of India and Pakistan have exceeded 46°C since mid-April, with readings running some 5–8°C above seasonal norms in affected regions — a deviation that researchers and meteorologists have described as deeply alarming. At least 37 deaths have been recorded in India and 10 in Pakistan, though these figures are widely considered to be significant underestimates, given that heat-related mortality is known to be systemically undercounted across the subcontinent. The combination of extreme heat and elevated humidity is understood to be particularly dangerous, as the human body is unable to cool itself effectively under such conditions, leaving the elderly, the very young, and outdoor workers acutely exposed. Several reinforcing factors are thought to have driven this year's exceptional conditions.
Persistent high-pressure weather systems have sat over the region for extended periods, suppressing cloud formation, reducing rainfall, and allowing heat to accumulate at ground level across consecutive days. As soils dry out under these conditions, less energy is absorbed through evaporation, meaning more solar radiation is converted directly into surface heat — a feedback loop that is widely recognised as a compounding risk. Urban areas have fared particularly badly, as concrete and asphalt infrastructure retains heat overnight, preventing the recovery periods that cooler rural nights might otherwise provide. Behind these immediate meteorological drivers lies what scientists broadly regard as the defining factor: anthropogenic climate change.
Analysis by World Weather Attribution suggests the first major heatwave of the season, between 15 and 29 April, was made approximately three times more likely and around 1°C hotter as a direct consequence of warming already recorded. At current global warming levels of roughly 1.4°C, events of this magnitude are estimated to occur across the subcontinent approximately once every five years. The implications of continued warming are considered to be substantially more severe.