The sequence on the table in Doha is deceptively simple: money is released, a waterway reopens, and nuclear talks begin again. Qatar, which is mediating indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States, is trying to unlock more than $6bn in frozen Iranian assets. If it succeeds, the strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of the world's seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, could reopen before American voters go to the polls in the midterm elections on Tuesday. The main innovation is speed.

Mediators have proposed compressing the steps by which Washington lifts sanctions, Tehran reopens the strait and nuclear negotiations resume. Iran has reportedly agreed to shorten that timetable from seven days to two. The aim is to reduce the distrust that has defined the war, which the United States and Israel began in February. Trust is in short supply: on Friday, unidentified missiles struck a Pakistan-bound Qatari LNG tanker near the strait, only hours after Tehran had given the vessel safe-passage clearance.

Reactions in the region are cautious. The UAE's envoy, Anwar Gargash, said further escalation would serve neither Iran nor its neighbours, while adding that the Gulf states are "braced for the worst". Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said he hoped Washington would choose diplomacy, but also that Iran was ready for defence, and he ruled out direct talks for now. Donald Trump, meanwhile, claimed that much of Iran's military had been destroyed, yet said one or two targets still needed to be "taken care of".