In February, a barrel of Brent crude cost about $72. On Friday it briefly touched $117, a rise of more than 60% in eight months, before easing back to just over $116. The jump of roughly 3.5% in a single session took the international benchmark to its highest point since April, when it peaked at $126.

The trigger was a threat. Tehran said it would strike oil facilities, undersea cables, datacentres and AI facilities across the Gulf if the United States and Israel launched a fresh offensive. That list is revealing: it suggests that Iran sees the region's digital backbone, not only its pipelines and terminals, as a legitimate target. Reports that Washington may consider new strikes after the 3 November midterm elections, rather than pursue diplomacy, did the rest.

Richard Hunter of Interactive Investor noted that a conflict many had expected to be brief is now in its eighth month. The physical risks are already visible. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed to have hit four commercial ships in the strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, and vessels attempting the crossing still face projectiles. The US state department has ordered some diplomats and the families of government employees to leave Saudi Arabia, whose facilities have come under intensified attack from Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's bombardment of Russian diesel refineries is tightening supply from a different direction, a reminder that this is not a single-front shock.