In June, India received roughly 40% less rainfall than normal. That single statistic alarmed food economists worldwide, because India grows nearly one third of the planet's rice — the vast majority of which feeds its own 1.4 billion people. Behind the deficit sits a familiar but potentially record-strength culprit: El Niño, the Pacific weather pattern that distorts rainfall and temperature across continents.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) now places a 63% probability on this year's event being very strong, and the World Bank has warned it could slash rice output by 20% to 50% in the regions it strikes hardest. The timing is particularly unwelcome. Russia's war in Ukraine continues to threaten one of the world's most productive grain corridors, with repeated attacks on Black Sea ports and farmland disrupting exports. Separately, conflict in the Middle East has pushed up energy and fertiliser prices, raising the cost of growing food everywhere from the Sahel to Central America.

JP Morgan warned last week that El Niño combined with oil prices near $100 a barrel could drive food inflation up by as much as 1.5 percentage points — a figure that sounds modest until mapped onto households already stretched by two years of elevated prices. What makes this moment structurally different from earlier shocks is the compound nature of the stress. Maximo Torero, chief economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, described the convergence as capable of creating "a very complex situation by the end of the year.

" The FAO judges that parts of Africa's Sahel, southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and Central America's Dry Corridor face a greater than 50% chance of drought in the coming months.