Your Prescient Prediction Portfolio — Business English Thinking Canvas | ClassPlan.ai

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The Small Bet Forecast · Thinking Canvas

Your Prescient Prediction Portfolio

You are going to build three small, specific predictions about your own work or industry — the way Tetlock's best forecasters do.

Your Signal

Name one thing quietly changing in your work or industry right now — something you notice but most colleagues seem to be ignoring.

Sort the Forces

What is driving this change, and what is slowing it down? Place each force in the right zone.

Driving it forward

Holding it back

Commit to a Probability

Write your prediction as a probability statement — not 'this will happen' but 'I believe there is roughly a ___% chance that ___ within ___ years.' Then mark where your confidence sits on the spectrum.

Wild guess

Reasoned estimate

Stress-Test It

Look back at Step 2. What single piece of evidence, if you saw it tomorrow, would make you revise your prediction downward? Write that evidence as one specific sentence — if you cannot name it, your prediction may be unfalsifiable.

The Prescient Word

Choose one word that captures what would need to be true about people — not technology, not markets — for your prediction to come true. Write it, then explain in one line why that human behaviour is the real bet.

Why that word?

Discuss Share your word from Step 5 with a partner — do they think it is the real lever, or did you miss something deeper?

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