Nine months after a fragile truce, Hamas has accepted disarmament in principle — but a sequencing deadlock with Israel threatens to derail the deal before it begins.
On July 30, 2026, Donald Trump announced a breakthrough that his administration had spent months chasing: Hamas had agreed to disarm and hand over control of Gaza to a technocratic Palestinian administration. Trump called it a "major milestone." Within 24 hours, his Board of Peace published a road map, drafted by High Commissioner Nickolay Mladenov, detailing how phase 2 of the U.S.
-brokered plan would work. The world's attention snapped to Gaza — but the fine print told a complicated story. Phase 1, which began after the ceasefire was signed on October 9, 2025, had been far from clean. Israeli forces killed more than 1,100 Palestinians during that period and quietly expanded the territory they occupy — from an agreed 53% of Gaza to over 65%.
Living conditions for the enclave's roughly two million residents have barely improved. Hamas, under sustained military pressure and watching its operatives die, concluded that accepting disarmament was the least damaging option available, both for the movement and for the population it governs. The agreement did not happen spontaneously. Egypt, Turkey and Qatar applied intense pressure on Hamas leadership during reportedly heated internal deliberations.
The process was also shaped by a leadership change inside Hamas: Khalil al-Hayya was elected chairman of the political bureau, replacing a fractured committee that had been unable to reach consensus since the death of Yahya Sinwar. The direct intervention of Mohammed Dahlan — an exiled former Fatah figure based in the UAE and a senior adviser to Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed — reportedly proved decisive in bridging the final gaps. Yet the central deadlock remains unresolved.