Within 72 hours of signing a memorandum of understanding with Washington at Versailles on June 18, Iran's military command announced it had closed the Strait of Hormuz once again. The move shocked no one inside the negotiating rooms — but it confirmed every worst-case reading of a deal that critics had already branded a postponed catastrophe rather than a genuine peace. The backdrop matters. Iran sealed the strait in February, triggering one of the most severe disruptions to global energy supply in modern history.

Fuel prices spiked across Europe and North America; American drivers felt the squeeze at every petrol station. That economic pain, more than any diplomatic overture, was what ultimately brought President Donald Trump to the table. Iran understood this perfectly. By controlling the world's most critical oil chokepoint, Tehran secured concessions that may well exceed those granted under the 2015 nuclear agreement negotiated by Barack Obama — without offering anything materially new on the nuclear question itself.

Obama, speaking after the Versailles signing, said it was "doubtful that any agreement that arises is going to be significantly different, or represent a significant improvement from the deal" he oversaw nearly a decade ago.