Temperatures exceeding 46°C have been recorded across large parts of India and Pakistan since mid-April, with many areas running between five and eight degrees above seasonal norms — a deviation that climate scientists regard as deeply alarming. The heat, which typically peaks before the monsoon arrives in June, has this year been sustained and unrelenting in ways that distinguish it from ordinary pre-monsoon conditions. At least 37 deaths have been recorded in India and ten in Pakistan, though these figures are widely believed to represent a significant undercount, given that heat-related mortality is systemically under-reported across the region.

Several meteorological factors have combined to produce conditions of unusual severity. Persistent high-pressure weather systems have settled over the subcontinent, suppressing cloud formation and preventing the cooling rains that might otherwise offer relief. With soils drying out rapidly, less energy is absorbed by evaporation, and more heat is instead transferred directly into the land surface. Urban areas have been disproportionately affected, as concrete and asphalt retain heat overnight, denying residents — particularly those without access to cooling — any meaningful respite.

The danger is compounded considerably by humidity. When extreme heat coincides with high moisture levels, the human body's ability to cool itself through sweating is severely impaired. Outdoor workers, the elderly, and those in informal settlements are considered to face the greatest risk, and medical authorities have warned that the physiological threat extends well beyond what a thermometer reading alone can convey.

Underpinning these immediate conditions is the broader trajectory of climate change. Analysis by World Weather Attribution suggests that the first significant heatwave, which ran from 15 to 29 April 2026, was made approximately three times more likely and around one degree hotter by human-caused warming. At current global warming levels of roughly 1.4°C, events of this kind are projected to occur approximately once every five years. Should warming reach 2.6°C by 2100 — the path on which current emissions place the world — heatwaves of comparable intensity could arrive every two to three years and be 2.2°C hotter still.