theSIGNAL BUSINESS
31 May 2026
"Power is not revealed by striking hard or often, but by striking true."
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Business

Trump-linked firm pursues billion-dollar Balkan pipeline

A company with no infrastructure record and deep MAGA connections is close to securing a major Bosnian gas concession.

Behind a white door on a graffitied backstreet in Sarajevo, reached by a path that runs past an overgrown garden, sits the registered office of a company that is believed to be on the verge of securing contracts worth more than one billion dollars. AAFS Infrastructure and Energy is reported to be close to winning a concession to build and operate a pipeline across the Balkans, one that would allow liquefied natural gas shipped from the United States to displace supplies that have long been drawn from Russia. "This could be the most important infrastructure project ever in Bosnia and Herzegovina," a senior Bosnian official, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of ongoing negotiations, has said. What AAFS appears to lack in relevant experience, it is widely considered to compensate for through political proximity to Donald Trump. Among the company's representatives is a Washington lawyer who has acted for the Trump family in political litigation, as well as the brother of the president's former national security adviser. Both individuals are understood to have participated in efforts to contest the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, a cause that has remained close to Trump's priorities. A Guardian investigation, drawing on interviews with current and former officials on both sides of the Atlantic, leaked documents and corporate filings, has sought to examine how an obscure firm came to occupy such a consequential position in the global contest over energy supply. The episode is seen by analysts as illustrative of a broader shift in how American foreign policy is being conducted under an administration that critics argue has struggled to maintain a clear boundary between national interest and private enrichment.…

AAFS representatives Jesse Binnall and Joe Flynn pictured in Sarajevo, January 2025.
Discuss
  • What risks does commercial diplomacy of this kind pose to post-conflict stability?
  • How does the AAFS case illustrate the blurring of policy and private interest under Trump?
  • Why might Bosnian officials feel unable to publicly resist US pressure over the pipeline?
  • To what extent does Trump-era energy policy represent a coherent geopolitical strategy toward Russia?
  • What international norms, if any, govern the conduct of politically connected intermediaries in infrastructure deals?
Business

Trump's inflation record threatens Republican midterm hopes

Donald Trump is widely regarded as one of the most electorally successful politicians of his generation, which makes his apparent indifference to the inflationary consequences of his own policies all the more striking. A New York Times/Siena poll of registered voters conducted earlier this month found that his approval rating on the cost of living stood at minus 42 percentage points, a figure that compares poorly even with his ratings on the economy and the deeply unpopular war in Iran. Analysts suggest that tariffs, the curtailment of Affordable Care Act subsidies and an accelerating deportation programme have each contributed to upward pressure on prices.

The political damage is being compounded by what many observers see as self-inflicted electoral wounds, including his endorsement of the ethically troubled Ken Paxton over the more electable four-term incumbent John Cornyn in the Texas Senate primary. Insurance premiums are reported to have risen by an average of 58 per cent following the removal of enhanced ACA subsidies, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, a development that is expected to weigh heavily on household sentiment as the midterms approach.
  • How far can a president's trade and immigration policies be held directly responsible for inflation?
  • What does the Texas Senate primary suggest about Trump's judgment as a party-builder?
Business

Iran's Hormuz toll plan defies international maritime law

Iran has been accused of operating what one prominent think tank has described as a maritime protection racket, after reports emerged that Tehran has begun levying fees of up to two million dollars per vessel for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The strait, which is squeezed between Iran and Oman and which carried roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas before the outbreak of the Iran war, is regarded as the single most critical energy chokepoint in global trade. Iranian authorities have justified the charges by citing war reparations, navigational services and environmental protection, and are said to be drafting a joint protocol with Oman requiring ships to obtain permits before transit.

Maritime law specialists are broadly agreed that the charges are inconsistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees all vessels the right of transit passage through international straits without interference or material fees. Unlike man-made canals such as Suez or Panama, which are built and maintained by sovereign states entitled to charge for their use, natural straits are governed by rules designed explicitly to preserve freedom of navigation. The United States and China are reported to have expressed joint opposition to the levy, while Gulf states have similarly rejected Tehran's position.
  • What legal and diplomatic mechanisms exist to challenge Iran's Hormuz transit fees effectively?
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There is a logic, in our current world, of having administration-connected people involved in big economic projects or investments.
Former senior US official, speaking on condition of anonymity
AMERICAS · Business
Why $1bn in Balkans energy contracts are going to an obscure company connected to Donald Trump
AFRICA · Business
Suez, Panama canals charge for transit — why can't Hormuz?
AMERICAS · Business
Inflation won Trump the presidency, but could cost him the midterms
ASIA · Business
Brazil is set to cut in on China's rare earths dominance
theSIGNAL IN THE LAB
IVOCABULARY
on the verge ofconcession
compensate forchokepointlevy
reparationsanonymity
IIGRAMMAR FOCUS
Causative have/get — have something done
Use 'have/get + object + past participle' to describe arranging for someone else to do something for you. The subject does not perform the action directly but causes it to be done.
reviewed · built · drafted · assessed · verified · issued · examined
  1. Bosnia hopes to have the pipeline by a consortium of international contractors within the next decade.
  2. Iranian authorities are said to be getting a joint protocol with Oman to formalise the transit permit system.
  3. The Guardian had leaked corporate documents by legal experts before publishing its investigation.
  4. Trump's allies appear to have had their political connections carefully before approaching Bosnian officials.
  5. Shipping companies operating in the Strait of Hormuz may soon be forced to have transit permits before each voyage.
  6. The Bosnian government wants to have the full economic impact of the LNG pipeline by independent analysts.
  7. Several Gulf states have had their official objections to Iran's fees through diplomatic channels at the United Nations.
IIIIDIOMS
Define each idiom in your own words. Then write one in a sentence of your own.
  1. on the verge of (securing contracts)
  2. compensate for (through political proximity)
  3. came to occupy (such a consequential position)
  4. self-inflicted (electoral wounds)
  5. weigh heavily on (household sentiment)
  6. protection racket
IVCRITICAL THINKING
All three articles touch on the blurring of boundaries between political power and financial gain. To what extent do you think personal and political connections should be permitted to influence major infrastructure contracts or foreign policy decisions? Where should the line be drawn, and who should enforce it?
VCREATIVE · HEADLINES
Write a headline for the top story in each style:
  • Tabloid newspaper
  • Luxury magazine
  • Activist blog
VIWRITING
A former US official quoted in the article describes the involvement of politically connected individuals in major economic projects as 'unsavoury but logical.' Write a 250-word opinion piece arguing either that this kind of political proximity is an unavoidable reality of modern diplomacy, or that it represents a fundamental corruption of the public interest.
VIIDEGREES OF EXTREMITY
Complete each ladder from mild to strong. Fill in the missing word or phrase from the articles.
  • linked to→→
  • familiar with someone→→
  • questionable→→
  • uncomfortable→→
  • rising prices→→
  • important route→→
  • relevant→→
VIIISPEAKING
  1. Should governments allow politically connected firms to win major contracts?
  2. Can rising prices alone cost a president an election?
  3. Is controlling a strait the same as owning it?
  4. How should international law respond when powerful states ignore it?
  5. Does foreign policy always blur with private business interests?