theSIGNAL BUSINESS
31 May 2026
"Power reveals character; wealth merely accelerates what was already there."
Business

Trump-linked firm nears billion-dollar Balkans pipeline deal

A little-known company with deep MAGA connections is reportedly close to securing a major Balkan gas pipeline concession worth over one billion dollars.

Behind a white door on a graffitied backstreet in Sarajevo, a company with no meaningful infrastructure history is believed to be on the verge of securing contracts worth more than one billion dollars. AAFS Infrastructure and Energy is understood to be close to finalising a concession that would see a gas pipeline built across the Balkans, designed to carry liquefied natural gas shipped from the United States as a replacement for Russian supplies that have long underpinned the region's energy supply. Senior Bosnian officials, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the negotiations, have described the project as potentially the most consequential infrastructure undertaking in the country's modern history. What the company appears to lack in relevant experience, it may compensate for through political proximity. Two of AAFS's representatives are reported to have significant personal ties to Donald Trump: one is a Washington attorney who has represented members of the Trump family in political litigation, while the other is the brother of a former national security adviser. Both figures are said to have participated in efforts to challenge the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, a cause that has remained central to Trump's political identity. A Guardian investigation, drawing on leaked documents, corporate filings, and interviews with current and former officials on both sides of the Atlantic, has sought to examine how the company came to occupy such a strategically prominent position. The findings are seen by analysts as illustrative of a broader pattern under the current administration, in which the boundaries between foreign policy and private enrichment are increasingly difficult to discern. The stakes in the western Balkans extend well beyond commercial gain.…

AAFS representatives pictured at the US embassy in Sarajevo, January 2025
AAFS representatives pictured at the US embassy in Sarajevo, January 2025 (detail)
Discuss
  • What risks does blending private business interests with foreign policy create for diplomacy?
  • How might energy dependency on Russia have shaped Bosnia's political vulnerabilities over time?
  • Should international concession contracts require independent verification of a company's prior experience?
  • In what ways might the Dayton peace framework be undermined by externally driven infrastructure deals?
  • How do personal political connections increasingly substitute for corporate track records in winning contracts?
Business

Trump's inflation gamble is turning against him

Donald Trump, whose 2024 campaign was substantially powered by voter anger over the cost of living, is now facing that same issue as his most damaging political liability. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted in May found that his approval rating on handling inflation was underwater by 42 percentage points, a figure that is worse than his ratings on the economy and the widely unpopular war in Iran. The tariff rounds introduced in April of last year are estimated to have raised the price of durable goods by as much as 3.8 percent over thirteen months, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

The administration's good fortune in containing visible price rises has largely been attributed to importers absorbing costs and falling services inflation masking goods price increases, but that buffer is seen as increasingly exhausted. The ending of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies has been linked to an average 58 percent jump in insurance premiums, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Continued mass deportations are expected to tighten labour supply in food, construction and care sectors, placing additional upward pressure on wages and consumer prices.
  • How might sustained inflation reshape Republican voter loyalty ahead of the midterms?
  • To what extent can a government credibly claim economic competence while driving up consumer prices?
Business

Iran imposes transit fees on Hormuz shipping

Iran has begun levying charges of up to two million dollars per vessel for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that, prior to the recent conflict, carried approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supply. Tehran has justified the fees as war reparations for damage sustained during US-Israeli strikes, as well as payment for navigational and environmental services, and has indicated that a permit protocol is being drafted jointly with Oman. However, the Institute for the Study of War has characterised the charges as a maritime protection racket, and both the United States and China have been reported to oppose the levy.

Maritime law specialists have noted that the fees appear incompatible with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees all vessels the right of transit passage through international straits without interference or meaningful financial imposition by coastal states. Unlike the Suez or Panama canals, which are man-made infrastructure built and maintained at sovereign expense, the Strait of Hormuz is a natural waterway and therefore subject to a distinct and more restrictive legal framework. Shipping has been disrupted in the strait for more than ninety days, with smaller operators reportedly paying while major global carriers continue to refuse.
  • How effectively can international maritime law constrain a state determined to exploit a chokepoint?
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There is a logic, in our current world, of having administration-connected people involved in big economic projects or investments.
Former senior US official, speaking on conditions of anonymity
AMERICAS · Business
Why $1bn in Balkans energy contracts are going to an obscure company connected to Donald Trump
AFRICA · Business
Suez, Panama canals charge for transit — why can't Hormuz?
AMERICAS · Business
Inflation won Trump the presidency, but could cost him the midterms
ASIA · Business
Brazil is set to cut in on China's rare earths dominance
theSIGNAL IN THE LAB
IVOCABULARY
on the verge ofconcession
underpinneddiscernliability
levyreparations
IIGRAMMAR FOCUS
Passive voice with reporting verbs
Reporting verbs such as 'believe', 'understand', 'report', 'see', and 'say' are commonly used in the passive voice to convey information without stating its source directly. The structure is: subject + is/are + past participle (+ to-infinitive or that-clause).
believed · understood · reported · seen · said · characterised · described
  1. AAFS Infrastructure and Energy is to be close to finalising a major pipeline concession in Bosnia.
  2. Both Trump-linked representatives are to have participated in efforts to challenge the 2020 election result.
  3. The Sarajevo-based project is by analysts as illustrative of a broader pattern under the current administration.
  4. Iran's transit fees have been by the Institute for the Study of War as a maritime protection racket.
  5. The buffer against visible price rises is as increasingly exhausted by economic commentators.
  6. The pipeline project has been by senior Bosnian officials as potentially the most consequential in the country's modern history.
  7. The charges levied by Iran are to be opposed by both the United States and China.
IIIIDIOMS
Define each idiom in your own words. Then write one in a sentence of your own.
  1. on the verge of (securing contracts)
  2. underwater by (42 percentage points)
  3. a buffer is exhausted
  4. tighten labour supply
  5. protection racket
  6. difficult to discern
IVCRITICAL THINKING
All three articles describe situations where powerful actors — a politically connected firm, a national government, and an administration — appear to use their position to extract financial or political gain. To what extent do you think international institutions such as the UN or IMF have the tools to hold such actors accountable, and what does the evidence in these articles suggest about the limits of those tools?
VCREATIVE · HEADLINES
Write a headline for the top story in each style:
  • Tabloid newspaper
  • Luxury magazine
  • Activist blog
VIWRITING
Using evidence from at least two of the articles, write a structured argument of 250–300 words explaining whether you believe the line between political power and private financial gain has become dangerously blurred in today's world. Support your view with specific examples from the texts.
VIIDEGREES OF EXTREMITY
Complete each ladder from mild to strong. Fill in the missing word(s) from the articles.
  • close to a deal→→
  • connected to Trump→→
  • some concern about prices→→
  • fees have gone up→→
  • the buffer is weakening→→
  • the charges seem questionable→→
  • shipping has been affected→→
VIIISPEAKING
  1. Should governments block contracts from politically connected firms?
  2. Can voter anger over prices remove a sitting president?
  3. Is transit fee charging ever legally justified by coastal states?
  4. Do deportations always raise consumer prices in affected sectors?
  5. Should fragile states like Bosnia accept high-risk infrastructure deals?