theSIGNAL BUSINESS
31 May 2026
"Power is the ability to define phenomena and make others accept your definition."
Business

Trump allies seek Balkans gas pipeline deal

A little-known US company with deep Trump connections is closing in on a billion-dollar Bosnian energy contract.

Behind an unmarked white door on a graffitied backstreet in Sarajevo, the registered address of AAFS Infrastructure and Energy occupies the kind of premises that would attract little notice were the company not reportedly on the verge of securing contracts valued at more than one billion dollars. The concession in question would allow the firm to build and operate a natural gas pipeline across the Balkans, designed to channel liquefied natural gas shipped from the United States and thereby reduce the region's longstanding dependence on Russian supply. Senior Bosnian officials, who have asked not to be identified given the sensitivity of the negotiations, have described the project as potentially the most consequential piece of infrastructure their country has ever undertaken. What AAFS appears to lack in relevant experience, it may be compensated for by proximity to power. Among the company's representatives are a Washington attorney who has acted for the Trump family in election-related litigation and the brother of the president's former national security adviser — both of whom were involved in efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election result. US officials in the region are said to have made clear to Bosnian counterparts that the Trump administration expects the pipeline concession to be approved. The implications extend well beyond commercial interest. Bosnia remains a fragile state whose ethnic divisions were only partially resolved by the 1995 Dayton Agreement, brokered with decisive American involvement following a war that claimed approximately 100,000 lives. Critics have warned that Washington's current approach — in which business relationships appear to intersect with diplomatic leverage — risks destabilising the delicate political arrangements that have kept an uneasy peace.…

AAFS representatives meet US embassy officials in Sarajevo, January 2025
Discuss
  • What risks does blending diplomatic pressure with private business interests pose?
  • How might this pipeline deal affect Bosnia's fragile post-war political settlement?
  • Should governments require full disclosure when officials advocate for politically connected firms?
  • In what ways does this case reflect broader shifts in how US foreign policy is conducted?
  • How should international institutions respond when energy deals appear tied to political access?
Business

Trump's inflation gamble threatens Republican midterm hopes

Despite a formidable electoral record, Donald Trump appears to have made a series of choices that are widely regarded as self-defeating ahead of the midterm elections. His endorsement of the ethically compromised Ken Paxton in Texas's Senate primary has been seen as complicating Republican prospects against a popular Democratic challenger. More consequentially, polling by the New York Times and Siena College suggests that Trump's approval rating on the cost of living now sits roughly 42 percentage points underwater, a figure worse than his ratings on the economy or the ongoing war in Iran.

That vulnerability has been deepened by policy decisions that analysts consider structurally inflationary. Tariffs introduced in the spring of last year were found by the Yale Budget Lab to have raised durable goods prices by as much as 3.8 percent over thirteen months. The termination of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies has since driven average insurance premiums up by 58 percent, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Economists have cautioned that a continued reduction in the immigrant workforce, driven by the administration's deportation programme, is expected to place further upward pressure on wages and consumer prices.
  • How far can a president's policy choices directly determine inflation outcomes?
  • What political consequences typically follow when incumbents are blamed for rising prices?
Business

Iran imposes Hormuz tolls, defying maritime law

Iran has begun levying charges of up to two million dollars per vessel for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that has drawn condemnation from maritime legal experts, Gulf states, the United States, and China alike. Tehran has justified the fees as compensation for damage sustained during US-Israeli military strikes and as payment for navigational and environmental services, and has reportedly been drafting a joint protocol with Oman to formalise a permit system. The Institute for the Study of War has characterised the arrangement as a maritime protection racket.

Legal specialists have been quick to point out that the charges appear to contravene the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees all nations the right of unimpeded transit passage through international straits. Unlike the Suez or Panama canals, which are man-made infrastructure constructed and maintained at sovereign expense, the Strait of Hormuz is a natural waterway over which Iran holds no comparable legal claim to levy tolls. Before the Iran war, the strait carried approximately one-fifth of the world's traded oil and gas, meaning any prolonged disruption to freedom of navigation could carry significant consequences for global energy markets.
  • What legal and diplomatic mechanisms exist to challenge Iran's Hormuz toll regime?
—
There is a logic, in our current world, of having administration-connected people involved in big economic projects or investments.
Former senior US official, speaking on condition of anonymity
AMERICAS · Business
Why $1bn in Balkans energy contracts are going to an obscure company connected to Donald Trump
AFRICA · Business
Suez, Panama canals charge for transit — why can't Hormuz?
AMERICAS · Business
Inflation won Trump the presidency, but could cost him the midterms
ASIA · Business
Brazil is set to cut in on China's rare earths dominance
theSIGNAL IN THE LAB
IVOCABULARY
on the verge ofconcession
proximity to powerleveragestructurally inflationary
contraveneunimpeded transit passage
IIGRAMMAR FOCUS
Causative have/get — have something done
Use 'have/get + object + past participle' to describe an action arranged or commissioned by the subject but carried out by someone else. For example: 'The government had the pipeline inspected' means the government arranged for others to do it.
approved · raised · built · drafted · condemned · levied · formalised
  1. US officials expect the Bosnian government to have the pipeline concession before the end of the year.
  2. Iran has had its toll system into a joint protocol with Oman.
  3. Tehran has had charges of up to two million dollars on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
  4. The Trump administration wants to have a new gas pipeline across the Balkans to reduce dependence on Russian supply.
  5. The introduction of tariffs meant that consumers effectively had the prices of durable goods by nearly four percent.
  6. Maritime legal experts have had Iran's Hormuz toll scheme by international bodies as a violation of the Law of the Sea.
  7. Bosnia hopes to have the entire infrastructure deal and signed before political tensions in the region escalate further.
IIIIDIOMS
Define each idiom in your own words. Then write one sentence of your own using one of the idioms.
  1. on the verge of (something)
  2. proximity to power
  3. underwater (on something)
  4. place upward pressure on (something)
  5. protection racket
  6. freedom of navigation
IVCRITICAL THINKING
All three articles touch on situations where political connections, legal norms, or economic power appear to be used in ways that benefit a small group at the expense of a broader public. Do you think there is a meaningful difference between a government leveraging diplomatic influence to benefit private business interests and a state levying illegal tolls on international shipping? What principle, if any, connects these cases?
VCREATIVE · HEADLINES
Write a headline for the Balkans pipeline story in each style:
  • Tabloid newspaper
  • Luxury magazine
  • Activist blog
VIWRITING
A former US official described the Balkans pipeline deal as 'unsavoury' but stopped short of condemning it outright. Write a letter to a Bosnian newspaper either defending or opposing the project, using evidence from the article to support your position.
VIIDEGREES OF EXTREMITY
Complete each ladder from mild to strong. Fill in the missing word(s) from the articles.
  • noticeable→→
  • uncomfortable→→
  • debated→→
  • affected→→
  • criticism→→
  • difficult→→
  • rising→→
VIIISPEAKING
  1. Should energy security justify overlooking a government's political connections?
  2. Can economic pressure ever be a legitimate foreign policy tool?
  3. How far should maritime law constrain a nation's wartime claims?
  4. When does political endorsement become a liability for a party?
  5. Is reducing energy dependence on Russia worth any cost?